I need to read your article. I am certain it is well written. However, attending many industry group meetings, I can say: yes, programming is in a bubble.
It is only a matter of time before someone makes a billion dollars producing visual designers which allow people to “program” computers through GUI workflow interfaces and configurations, not code. Salesforce.com is already an admirable force in this world.
Heck, the applications could spit out code in Python, or Java, or Kotlin, or Django, or whatever for “fine tuning”, if companies really want.
The thing is that programmers ultimately should be programming themselves out of coding. Any time I see a developer making the world more complicated rather than less, creating job security through lingo and complexity and cryptic code rather than ridding the world of it, I know that person has a limited span at the company he or she works for, if the company knows what it is doing. [Bad companies ignore this rule to their detriment.]
The same goes for industries which entrench in the same way.
Not only that: but requiring such specialization creates cost centers [programmers] who are seen as arcane wielders of very limited knowledge [tool or language of the day here]. That never ends well for anyone.
First, along comes a recession and wipes us all back to common tools and languages. Which company, in a recession, wants to invest in maintaining a very specialized programmer base when they could be using [commonly used language or toolset here]?
Second, smart management doesn’t want to pay a premium for Mr. Or Mrs. [Flavor of the day] when they realize Mr. or Mrs. [Common skillset] is much cheaper because he or she is everywhere?
Third, onboarding management needs to do assessments as to how long it takes a new developer to learn their stack, how hard it is to find a new developer who can learn their stack, and what is really gained by that stack.
I lived through the dot com boom/bust, and this feels exactly the same — except it is obscured through profitability of the companies themselves.
Once that profitability is called into question, and it will be, the companies will reduce costs.
We need to get ahead of the bust, not bust as an industry with it.
And, yes, I love to code. I’ll be sorry to see it go away.
Now, to read your article thoroughly. Thanks for posting on such an important topic.